Graphical-mathematical model to estimate CO2 concentration level as an indicator of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Abstract

The first documented cases of Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan city (Hubei province, China) were caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), studies mention viral transmission is more common in indoor and poorly ventilated environments compared to outdoor environments or environments with abundant airflow. In this context, this research aimed to estimate, through a mathematical model by a Box-Behnken design, the time and occupancy required in a physical space to reach CO₂ levels that exceed the risk level established as a safer condition of 700 ppm for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. According to the proposed mathematical model, it is possible to predict safe conditions. With this, it was found that natural ventilation is the best option to reduce CO₂ concentration, considering the occupancy/m³ and time, allowing a constant airflow; the use of air conditioners to control the temperature in rooms without natural ventilation is suggested; notwithstanding, these types of equipment are not designed to reduce CO₂ concentration. Thus, their use in rooms with open windows and doors leads to a shorter equipment lifetime, for this reason, its operation in special conditions, such as in rooms without natural ventilation should be considered.